Can the Green Shoots of Clean Energy Break Through the “Brown Blockade”?
The “brown blockade” refers to the strong anti-climate change sentiments and support for fossil fuel-producing industries in certain US states. These states tend to be major producers or consumers of fossil fuels, with economies heavily reliant on their extraction and use.
Recently, these states played a significant role in President-Elect Trump’s victory, with 26 out of 27 states heavily invested in fossil fuels backing Trump. The GOP also captured four Senate seats in those same states.
This opposition to climate change initiatives by the federal government can undermine efforts to reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy alternatives. However, some experts believe that there are “green shoots” emerging in these same red states, driven by large-scale investments in wind, solar power, and electric vehicle manufacturing.
These investments could provide a crucial safeguard for Biden’s clean energy policy, as they are non-ideological jobs created by economic development incentives and tax credits. Furthermore, technological advancements and economies of scale are driving down costs and increasing adoption of renewable energy sources.
However, repealing federal policies and tax credits supporting clean energy could significantly slow or halt this progress. Estimates suggest that repealing the IRA’s $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles could reduce their sales by 27% domestically and 37% overall.
The pace of adoption matters, as delayed changes can have significant environmental and economic implications. Continued fossil fuel reliance can delay efforts to combat climate change and exacerbate its impacts on the planet.
As Trump’s second term progresses, the “brown blockade” in Washington may continue to hinder progress on clean energy, but the momentum in the states and ongoing economic benefits could provide a hedge against the worst-case scenarios.