Economists Expect Sharp Rebound in November Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the November jobs report on Friday at 8:30 am ET, and economists are expecting a sharp rebound in job gains after a disappointing low of 12,000 jobs in October. The consensus estimate is for a 207,500 job gain, a significant increase from October’s weak report which was affected by back-to-back hurricanes and a major labor strike.
Gus Faucher, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, expects a job growth of 250,000 positions in November, indicating underlying payroll growth of about 150,000 jobs per month. He believes the labor market is still doing well and supporting income growth, allowing consumers to increase their spending.
The level of job openings nationwide rose to 7.7 million in October, beating economists’ expectations of 7.5 million. The number of people quitting their jobs increased by 228,000 to 3.3 million in October, but is down by 308,000 compared to a year ago. The number of people laid off from jobs declined by 169,000 in October to 1.6 million from September.
Weekly jobless claims data shows that employers have pulled back on hiring, with the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits rising to a three-year high. However, initial claims for jobless benefits increased by 9,000 to a six-week high.
Despite the potential for a one-off October report, the labor market is expected to remain strong, with layoffs remaining historically low and unemployment claims declining. The labor market has continued to expand, with this period tied for the third-longest in history. The coming weeks and months may bring changes to the narrative for the labor market, inflation, and the overall economy, particularly with the incoming presidential administration’s promises of tariffs and immigration policies.
