Over 1,000 days of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned that giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself could lead to “serious consequences, potentially even nuclear.” But despite his threats, each time Ukraine has made a request, its allies have agonized over whether to grant it, fearing it would escalate the conflict and provoke a Russian response.
Yet, each time, when the West finally accepts Ukraine’s requests, including for longer-range weapons, Russia’s most catastrophic threats do not materialize. This has led to a familiar rhythm: Russia making dire threats, and the West hesitating, only to ultimately give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself without sparking a Russian response.
Despite Putin’s heightened threats since the latest taboo crumbled, analysts believe there is little reason to believe this time will be different. The situation is part of a persistent strategy by Russia to force the West to see the conflict on its terms, making it difficult for Ukraine to resist Russian aggression without being labeled an “escalation.” This is a revival of the Soviet concept “reflexive control,” where a state imposes a false set of choices on its adversary, forcing it to make decisions against its own interests.
Russia’s strategy is working, as seen in the latest debate over Ukraine’s newly granted powers. The Biden administration’s decision to give Ukraine longer-range weapons has been met with concerns over the potential for escalation. But analysts say this is another example of Russia’s successful reflexive control, as the West is forced to make decisions against its own interests.
The Kremlin’s strategy is not without precedent. Russia has been accused of launching a large-scale attack targeting Ukraine’s power grid, and its ability to do so without a pretext has been criticized. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the West has provided Ukraine with some weapons, but has placed strict conditions on how they can be used, making it difficult for Ukraine to effectively defend itself.
The lack of clarity has led to a confusing and ineffective response from the West, with some analysts arguing that the current situation is a revival of the Soviet concept “reflexive control.” This is a strategy that forces a state to make decisions that are against its own interests, allowing Russia to gain an upper hand. Despite the heightened threats, analysts believe there is little reason to believe that this time will be different.
