Global Stakeholders Confront Geopolitical Implications of Syrian Rebel Offensives
A rebel offensive led by an Islamist group in Syria has made a lightning advance, capturing two major cities and potentially threatening President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on the country. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), a group founded by former Al Qaeda fighters, aim to overthrow the regime and establish a radical Islamist government.
The consequences of a rebel victory are far-reaching, with various global stakeholders facing significant implications. Western and Arab states, as well as Israel, would like to see Iran’s influence in Syria curtailed, but none wish for a radical Islamist regime to replace Assad. For Russia, Syria’s fall could mean losing its closest Middle Eastern ally and undermining its ability to project power while fighting a war in Ukraine. For Iran, it could shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militias.
The rebel advances have prompted Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to re-evaluate their stance on the Syrian crisis. In 2011, these countries backed the Syrian opposition, but in recent years, they have extended a hand to the Assad regime, recognizing the need to curb Iran’s regional influence. The Arab League readmitted Syria in 2023, a move seen as a major shift in the region’s dynamics.
Iran has invested heavily in Syria, using the country as a land bridge to Lebanon and as a base for its proxies. Losing Syria would be a “huge blow” for Iran, according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. Iran may also use its proxies in the region as leverage in potential talks with an incoming Trump administration.
Israel is also caught in a difficult position, with Assad viewing it as an enemy and allowing Iran to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities bordering Lebanon could further disrupt Iran’s supply routes, placing Iran in a difficult position. Israeli intelligence officials have warned that the offensive could evolve into a new challenge posed by HTS and the Sunni rebels leading the offensive in Syria.
Russia has committed to supporting Assad, with Russian jets stepping up strikes on opposition forces in northern Syria. However, Moscow’s ability to mobilize forces is difficult given the rebels’ rapid advance across northern Syria. The loss of Syria would be a significant blow to Russia’s status as a great power and its ability to maneuver in the Middle East.
Turkey has also played a significant role in the crisis, backing the Syrian National Army and representing the opposition in negotiations with Russia. Ankara has sought a solution for the estimated 3.1 million Syrian refugees it hosts, more than any other country, and has called for a meeting with Assad to reset relations. However, until recently, the Syria situation was seen in Turkey as “regime is winning, opposition is losing” with the Iran-Russia axis defining the developments on the ground. The recent rebel push has changed that power dynamic, with Turkey seeking to engage in negotiations from a position of strength.
