The Fall of the Assad Regime: A New Era for Syria Begins
For the first time in over 50 years, the Assad family’s brutal dictatorship in Syria is no more. In a stunning and speedy march to power, rebel fighters declared Damascus “liberated” on Sunday, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Russia.
The regime’s fall comes after 13 years of civil war, which had largely been static since a 2020 ceasefire agreement. An armed rebel alliance, led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise attack and took control of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, on November 30. The opposing forces then seized the second major city, Hama, and advanced on Homs, the gateway to the capital.
As Homs fell, rebels encircled and marched into Damascus, declaring Assad overthrown and the city “liberated.” Footage showed prisoners being freed from Assad’s notorious detention facilities, rebels and civilians ransacking the presidential palace, and revealing his luxurious lifestyle and large car collection.
Assad is the second generation of an autocratic family dynasty that held power in Syria for more than five decades. He took power after his father’s death in 2000, and has been accused of severe human rights violations and brutal assaults against civilians, including the use of starvation as a weapon, enforced disappearances, and killings.
The conflict in Syria had remained deadly but largely dormant in recent years, defined by low-level clashes between the rebels and Assad’s regime. However, the rebels seized an opportunity to advance, capitalizing on a weakened government whose key allies are heavily preoccupied with other conflicts.
Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022 has sucked in manpower and resources, while Iran’s war with Israel has decimated its proxy Hezbollah and left it hamstrung. These developments created a vacuum that the rebels used to advance, and their rapid offensive ended with a march into the capital met with little resistance.
The anti-regime coalition is now disbanding Assad’s military, laying out its vision for a post-Assad Syria. However, experts wonder if the next phase will be a new dawn for a people strangled by a brutal autocracy or whether sectarianism will bring a different type of authoritarian rule.
The fall of the Assad regime has huge reverberations throughout the region and around the world. The development has left Iran weakened and will be broadly celebrated in Israel, which will welcome Iran’s loss of influence in Syria. However, Israel has already moved to bolster its border with Syria, reflecting the trepidation that underlies the events of the last few days. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin will also be nursing the effects of Assad’s fall from power, which will weaken his hand in any future negotiations.