This past Saturday was an exciting day in college football, with several upsets and surprises that had significant implications for the remaining weeks of the regular season and the College Football Playoff (CFP). In his latest weekly email to colleagues and producers at FOX Sports, Chris Fallica, a longtime handicapper, shares his thoughts on the latest developments in the world of college football.
Fallica begins by analyzing the current AP top 12, noting that eight of the teams in this grouping have either zero or one win over current ranked teams. He surmises that the AP voters are prioritizing win-loss record over other factors like strength of schedule (SOS), strength of record (SOR), and quality wins. He also highlights that only two top 15 teams, Georgia and Alabama, have SOS ratings in the top 20, and that four teams have SOS ratings outside the top 60.
Fallica then turns his attention to the CFP, noting that an expanded playoff has given more teams and fan bases a chance to make the CFP and potentially win the national title. He wonders if we’re heading towards a three-loss team making the CFP and speculates that ole Miss, Alabama, or even South Carolina might be left out of the playoff in favor of teams like Tulane, Army, or Boise State.
The analyst also gives praise to Duke’s new head coach, Manny Diaz, who has led the Blue Devils to an 8-3 record in his first season, including a narrow loss to a top-five Miami team and an overtime defeat to a highly ranked SMU squad. Fallica also highlights Vanderbilt’s impressive 7-1 record against the spread, their ability to outscore opponents by an average of 44-14, and their notable wins against top opponents.
In his weekly picks, Fallica predicts the following upsets:
* Kansas will beat Tennessee as an 11-point underdog, given their strong performance against ranked opponents.
* Ole Miss will lose to Arkansas State, as they have struggled against ranked teams and have a tough schedule ahead of them.
* Penn State will beat Michigan, as they are a strong team with a talented quarterback and a good defense.
Fallica also identifies several teams that could make a strong case for the CFP, including Kansas, South Carolina, and Notre Dame. He concludes by stating that it’s been a wild season with many surprises, and that the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the College Football Playoff participants.