There’s been a recent effort to brand the White House as “The People’s House,” but this title seems misguided since the president is elected through the complicated Electoral College rather than directly by voters. In reality, it’s the House of Representatives that is closest to the American people and most directly represents their will.
The final House race of the 2024 election has been decided, with Democrats picking up nine seats and losing eight, while Republicans picked up eight and lost nine. When the new Congress takes office on January 3, the balance of power will be a slim 220-215 in favor of the Republicans.
However, with three Republican seats likely to be open by the end of the month, the true balance of power will be 217-215, leaving Republicans with little room for error if they wish to pass any legislation. House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged this, saying “Do the math; we have nothing to spare.”
President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he will work through executive orders and rulemaking to enact less permanent change, but House Speaker Mike Johnson is confident that he will be able to maneuver Trump’s controversial agenda through the House. The GOP’s slim majority is a continuation of the past two years, with Democrats holding a similar majority in 2018 and the pre-2018 era.
The lack of competitive districts due to gerrymandering means that incumbents often win re-election, limiting the number of changes in party control. The last time a minority in the House had 215 or more seats was after the 1930 midterm elections, when Republicans had 218 to Democrats’ 216.
Despite the challenges, Democrats are likely to seize on any openings that develop during the coming Congress. As many as 17 of the 435 seats changed party affiliation, with 16 remaining with the same party. The House, where laws are supposed to originate, remains the most democratic part of the American experiment, and its divided nature reflects the country’s deep divisions.