Two months after the 2024 presidential election, special elections in northern Virginia’s Loudoun County will provide an early test of voter sentiment ahead of the 2025 gubernatorial race and 2026 midterm elections. The elections will determine whether the Democratic Party will maintain its majority in the Virginia House of Delegates and Senate, or if the Republican Party will gain ground.
The two special elections are for an open state Senate seat and a state House seat, both of which are considered “strong Democratic” seats. Democrats are favored to hold onto both seats, but Republicans are banking on continued voter frustration over the economy trickling down to the state level.
The elections will also be a test of President-elect Donald Trump’s popularity in the state. In 2024, Trump made significant gains with virtually every part of the Democratic coalition in Loudoun County, winning 10,000 more votes than he did four years earlier. Republicans are hoping that this momentum will continue, while Democrats are framing state legislative control as a potential check on Trump’s power.
The results of the special elections will be closely watched, as they could indicate whether voters are pushing back on Trump’s victory or if his coalition remains strong. If Democrats hold onto the seats, it could suggest that the anti-Trump backlash seen in 2017 is repeating itself. On the other hand, if Republicans gain ground, it could be a sign that Trump’s coalition is as strong as it was in November.
The special elections are seen as a precursor to the state’s odd-year November election cycle, when both parties will compete for control of the general assembly and the governorship. The outcome of the elections will set the stage for the 2025 gubernatorial race and the 2026 midterm elections, and will provide an early indication of which party is better positioned to win in the coming years.