Harry Enten lays out two scenarios that could sink Johnson
Harry Enten, a statistician and political scientist, has been making the case that Boris Johnson’s premiership is under increasing pressure. In a tweet, he lays out two scenarios that could potentially sink Johnson’s premiership.
The first scenario Enten cites is a no-confidence vote. A motion of no confidence is a parliamentary procedure that allows MPs to vote on whether to remove the government. If the motion is successful, a new prime minister is then chosen. Enten notes that a successful no-confidence vote would require the support of at least 52 MPs. He estimates that there are currently around 40-50 MPs who are prepared to vote against the government, short of the necessary number needed to reach the required 52.
The second scenario Enten presents is a situation in which Johnson is forced to resign. In this scenario, Enten suggests that Johnson might find it more difficult to remain in office if several high-ranking government officials were to quit in protest. This could include the resignations of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, Home Secretary Priti Patel, and other leading figures in the government. Such a mass exodus could create political instability and make it difficult for Johnson to maintain his premiership.
Enten concludes by noting that while these scenarios are possible, they are not necessarily inevitable. He seems to be cautioning that while there are reasons to be concerned about Johnson’s premiership, the situation is not yet necessarily terminal.