With the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iranian resistance leaders and US lawmakers are expressing hope that Iran will topple its own leadership in a similar fashion, with US help. Former US Ambassador for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback said, “There’s a real chance for regime change right now, that’s the only way you’re going to stop a nuclear weapon.” A bipartisan group of senators spoke in support of toppling Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khameini, both through a return to former President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign through sanctions and supporting the Iranian resistance movement.
Senators Cory Booker, Jeanne Shaheen, and Ted Cruz all expressed support for regime change, with Cruz predicting, “The ayatollah will fall, the mullahs will fall, and we will see free and democratic elections in Iran.” Brownback emphasized the need for US involvement, saying, “I think we need to support politically the opposition inside of Iran. Provide them equipment, provide them information… the regime is not just going to walk away. You’ve got to force them out.”
Iran watchers believe the fall of Assad, who was heavily backed by Iran and its proxy force Hezbollah, is the perfect moment to do that. General James Jones, former White House national security adviser, said, “The tectonic shift in the Syrian government… should mean to the people of Iran that change is in fact possible in the Middle East.”
Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the main resistance group in Iran, claimed that Iranians are preparing an organized uprising. She and her political group have a 10-point plan for regime change that calls for rebuilding an Iranian government based on separation of religion and state, gender equality, abolition of the death penalty, and denuclearization.
However, it is unclear whether Iran would bow to US pressure or lash out even further if the US were to support regime change. The Biden administration has issued Iran sanctions waivers in hopes of future nuclear negotiations and has expressed no interest in helping to topple the ayatollah.
