United States Expected to Make Minimal Gains in Life Expectancy Over Next Few Decades
The United States is expected to experience only minor gains in life expectancy over the next few decades, according to forecasting models from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Life expectancy is expected to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050.
Researchers assessed the impacts of hundreds of diseases and other health risks on the US and individual states, as well as compared them to a set of more than 200 other countries. The study found that the US would lag in life expectancy gains, falling to 66th out of 204 countries assessed in 2050, down from 49th in 2022.
Life expectancy among women in the US is predicted to improve less than men’s, with the gap in life expectancy by gender shrinking. Addressing key risk factors, such as lower rates of obesity, smoking, and drug use disorders, could lead to significant improvements to US life expectancy.
Despite modest increases in life expectancy overall, the study forecasted health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity. The institute estimated that over 260 million people in the US would be affected by obesity by 2050, signifying a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.
The study also found that the rate of age-standardized mortality due to drug use disorders in the US would be the highest in the world, more than twice as high as in Canada. The report recommended eliminating risk in three key areas – environment, behavioral and metabolic risks, and childhood nutrition and vaccination – to bring life expectancy up by nearly four years, in line with current projections for Canada.
Overall, the study’s findings “ring the alarm” for immediate action, as the US must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies to slow down the decline in future health outcomes.