The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bellicose statements, according to five sources familiar with US intelligence.
Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.
Intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded that nuclear escalation is unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons. This view has not changed following President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles in limited circumstances to strike across the border but not deep inside Russia.
Russia’s launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed this conclusion. The US has assessed that Russia would try to match what it views as US escalation, and fielding the new missile is part of that effort.
However, US officials are concerned about Russia’s ability to find other covert ways of retaliating against the West, including sabotage and cyberattacks. Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, noted that “Russia’s hybrid response is a concern.”
The US has also been working with allies to mitigate the risk of nuclear escalation, and some officials believe that the escalation concerns were overblown. However, others still stress that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question.