What’s New
The number of homes sitting vacant and waiting for a buyer has reached levels not seen since 2008, with the number of newly built, ready-to-move-in homes for sale reaching its second-highest level ever.
According to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, the increase in inventory is due to builders inundating the market with supply. Gerli notes that this is quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22.
However, the surge in inventory is not necessarily good news for the housing market, as it is occurring without a corresponding rise in demand from buyers. Despite pent-up demand in the market, sales remain relatively low due to stubbornly high mortgage rates and rising home prices.
The trend is most pronounced in the South, particularly in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, and Georgia, where home prices are expected to drop in 2025. In contrast, the housing shortage is still ongoing in the Northeast and Midwest.
Gerli notes that there is a risk of a housing crash similar to the one in 2008, which could be exacerbated by rising insurance premiums and mortgage rates. The Senate Budget Committee has also warned of a potential housing crash due to these factors.
In response to this trend, Gerli suggests that homebuyers in these regions may see price reductions, particularly in suburban and rural areas where home builders are most active. He also warns that there could be even more spec inventory hitting the market in 2025, as builders complete homes under construction.