As the third year of war in Ukraine approaches its close, new battle lines have been established after Russia made advances in the east and Kyiv opened a new battlefront in Russia. The war, which has already cost a whopping $278 billion in aid for Ukraine, including nearly $87 billion from Washington, has expanded to Asia in 2024 as geopolitical rivalries in the Indo-Pacific began playing out through proxy in Ukraine.
The year began with a heated fight in Congress over whether the U.S. should supply more military aid to Ukraine, a fight that highlighted major divisions in the Republican Party and Kyiv’s deep reliance on Washington’s military support. The stalled supplies not only significantly increased Ukraine’s vulnerabilities in the east, particularly in Donetsk, but also enhanced frustration from Kyiv, NATO allies, and those who argued that defending Ukraine is in the U.S.’s security interest.
In late April, the House passed a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine, pushing U.S. financial commitments to $183 billion since Russia first launched its invasion in 2022. The package was meant to prompt an immediate surge in the delivery of military equipment and supplies, which, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, had fallen to 10% of what it had been the year before.
The European Union in June officially began membership talks with Ukraine after determining Kyiv had met the necessary requirements to join an economic and political partnership by countering corruption, reining in political lobbying, increasing transparency around officials’ wealth, and bolstering the rights of national minorities.
Moscow in September looked to secure its defense budget for 2025, and the federal government submitted a plan to its State Duma that called for $183 billion to be allocated for national security and defense next year, which amounted to some 41% of its annual expenditures.
In October, the G-7 finalized a $50 billion loan to Ukraine that would be paid using frozen Russian assets, and on Christmas Eve, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Kyiv had received its first $1 billion from the U.S.
The U.S. has agreed to send Kyiv $20 billion in frozen asset profits to be used for Ukraine’s military and reconstruction assistance through 2025. President Biden has vowed to fast-track as much military assistance to Ukraine as he can during the final days in office.
Throughout the war, Russia has relied on a heavy missile and drone campaign to brutalize the entirety of Ukraine. In 2024, Moscow escalated its aerial attacks targeting towns and cities, particularly in eastern Ukraine, ahead of its infantry advances, even if it meant the complete decimation of urban areas.
2024 saw more battlefield movement than 2023, though according to data provided by the Institute for the Study of War, this was largely seen in the second half of the year, a price for which Russia paid heavily. November proved to be a particularly brutal month, with Russia seeing its highest battlefield losses ever with 45,720 casualties reported in November, along with an estimated $3 billion worth of military equipment.
In May, Russia launched a new front in Kharkiv, which Ukraine had liberated in 2022, though the Kremlin’s renewed offensive largely failed. By early August, Ukraine made international headlines when it launched a surprise ground incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, an apparent attempt to divert forces from eastern Ukraine to the Kremlin’s home turf and give it a bargaining chip when the time comes for peace negotiations.
North Korea has also been accused of aiding Russia by covertly sending it military support in the form of microelectronics and semiconductors, among other items. China has also been accused of aiding Russia by covertly sending it military support in the form of microelectronics and semiconductors, among other items.
The year ended with Russia solidifying its primary winter strategy by attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Christmas Day by firing 184 drones and missiles across the country, according to Ukraine’s air force. The attacks sparked mass blackouts amid freezing temperatures in multiple regions, including Kharkiv in the north, the central Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava areas, as well as Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine.
Former President Trump said on the campaign trail that he would end the war before even entering office. Since winning the election, the president-elect’s confidence in his ability to do that appears to have shifted.