One year has passed since Moscow accused Kyiv of shooting down a Russian military plane carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine opened an investigation, but has yet to release its findings, leaving questions about who was killed, and why.
The crash of the IL-76 transport plane in the Belgorod region of Russia, near the border with Ukraine, set off a series of recriminations at a delicate moment for Kyiv, as it lobbied for Western aid to build up its depleted weapons stocks. Russian officials called it a “terrorist” act and convened an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. Ukrainian officials did not admit or deny shooting down the aircraft, and said they could not confirm that Ukrainian prisoners were on board. American officials later assessed that Ukrainian forces had used a U.S.-made Patriot missile to shoot it down, thinking the plane carried Russian missiles and munitions.
The families of the prisoners are still awaiting answers. With conflicting accounts and a lack of clarity, the incident has become a defining feature of the war. Both sides have pushed their preferred narratives over nearly three years of fighting, and been reluctant to disclose or acknowledge setbacks.
Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency opened an investigation into the incident, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for an international investigation. Russian officials said the plane had crashed in a snowy field near a settlement in the Korochansky district. No independent groups were able to visit the crash site; Ukraine requested that the Red Cross and United Nations be granted access.
Satellite images and unverified Russian video captured what appeared to be the crash site and debris of a plane in the area Russia described, but it was not possible to identify passengers from the imagery. Ukrainian officials asked for patience from citizens while they investigated Moscow’s claims.
The Russian authorities did not identify the victims of the crash when they announced it. But the names of 65 prisoners of war allegedly on board were shared on social media by the editor in chief of RT, the Russian state media broadcaster. A few days later, the Ukrainian government agency that oversees prisoners of war confirmed that the names on the list matched those who were set to be exchanged on the day of the crash. But the agency said it did not have evidence to confirm that those prisoners were aboard the plane, or even that they were dead.
The case dropped from the headlines for months, but an exchange of remains in early November was the first sign of a potential break. The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed it was present for a Nov. 8 transfer of remains. Russia said the transfer included the remains of 65 killed in the downing of the IL-76, but that claim could not be independently verified.
Ukraine’s general prosecutor and security service did not respond to questions about the status of the investigation or whether any remains had been identified. But there appears to be little dispute over who downed the plane. Russia’s defense ministry had accused Ukrainian forces of launching missiles from the nearby Kharkiv region of Ukraine that struck the aircraft. American officials briefed on the incident later said that Ukraine used a Patriot air defense missile to down the plane.
While Ukraine has not formally accepted responsibility, Sofia Sobolyeva, whose father was on the plane, said that’s beside the point now. “Logically, we understand that Ukraine shot it down,” she said, even though “officially we have nothing.”
