Ukraine Faces Tough Start to Winter with Russian Forces Making Gains Across the Front
A military analyst has warned that Ukraine’s three-month struggle against Russian forces is likely to continue into winter, with no signs of the situation improving in December. Emil Kastehelmi, an OSINT analyst from the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, stated that Russian forces have captured around 617 square miles in Ukraine and 190 square miles in Russia’s Kursk oblast since September.
Kastehelmi’s assessment is that the pace of Russian advances has quickened every month, despite heavy losses. He believes that Russia’s offensive will continue to accelerate, with the potential for Moscow to capture an additional 270 square miles of territory.
The analyst believes that Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges, including manning shortages, and that the country’s army may require diplomatic solutions to regain control of some Russian-held territories. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that his army may not have the strength to liberate these areas and has called for diplomatic efforts.
Despite some successes, such as holding off Russian advances in the Toretsk-Chasiv Yar-Siversk direction, Kastehelmi expects Russian forces to continue their offensive in the Pokrovsk-Velyka Novosilka direction and potentially breach Ukrainian defenses in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. He also foresees the battle of Pokrovsk beginning in the coming months, with the potential for further Russian gains.
The Ukrainian military faces challenges in stabilizing the front, and Kastehelmi’s assessment paints a concerning picture for the country’s prospects in the coming months.