Ukraine May Face Continued Russian Advances, Analyst Warns
A military analyst has sounded a warning about the ongoing situation in Ukraine, saying that Russian forces are likely to continue making gains across the front, a worrying trend that may continue over winter.
Emil Kastehelmi, from the Black Bird Group, stated that in the three months leading up to December, Moscow’s troops had captured around 617 square miles in Ukraine and 190 in Russia’s Kursk oblast. Despite heavy losses, Russia’s advances have not slowed down, and Kastehelmi believes that the situation will continue to deteriorate in December.
The analyst notes that the Ukrainians have struggled to stabilize the front, particularly in the Donetsk logistics hub of Pokrovsk and the nearby Kurakhove, where Russian forces have made rapid advances. Kiev has also lost ground in the Donbas region.
Kastehelmi believes that Russia will continue to attack aggressively, citing a lack of immediate signs indicating a slowdown in their offensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that his army may require diplomatic means to liberate some Russian-held territories, as they lack the strength to do so.
Despite some successes, such as holding the Toretsk-Chasiv Yar-Siversk direction and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, Kastehelmi predicts that Russian troops will continue to push forward, potentially capturing additional 270 square miles of territory. He also warned that they may attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, which would enable them to advance towards the key town of Kostiantynivka.
