[US President Donald Trump’s policy on Ukraine is a complex and multifaceted issue that distinguishes itself in two ways in the first week of his administration. Firstly, Trump’s persistent criticism of the economic damage the Kremlin is doing to Russia, making a business case for a peace deal by telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that he needs to make a pact for financial reasons. However, this may misread Putin’s apparent pathological commitment to victory and the broad existential nature of the conflict for Moscow.
Secondly, Trump’s regular discussions of the war, excluding it from his inauguration speech on Monday, and his suggestion that a lower oil price could impede Russia’s ability to wage war. He also correctly suggested that Beijing has great influence over Moscow and could force a peace deal upon them.
Trump’s approach to the conflict is shaped by his comfort zone, where everyone is seeking a smooth deal that makes them richer. However, this may not be the reality of the situation, as China may seek calm and ultimately wish the Ukraine conflict had never begun. The calculations made now by America’s adversaries concern the world order over the coming decade, not the immediate telephone call sheet of the White House.
Trump’s repeated call for NATO’s European members to pay more for defense has even been echoed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. It is correct to state that this is Europe’s war, and if Kyiv loses, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, and Moldova will feel the heat, not Florida or California.
Trump’s talk of the damage the war has done is also intriguing, as he said incorrectly that millions had died on both sides. Western officials say regularly that Russia’s losses amount to 700,000 dead and injured, and independent media have tracked nearly 100,000 public records that suggest Russian military deaths on the battlefield.
Despite his incorrect and emotional reference to millions, Trump’s opening week has done much to dispel the greater fear from Ukraine and its allies that Trump preferred coziness with Putin to NATO’s unity. His emotional albeit shaky grasp of the war’s horrors and his criticism of, not fawning towards, Putin are also notable. However, the road ahead for Trump is deeply complex and fraught with rivals who have years more experience in the job, and much more to lose or gain.
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