[Federal economic data is considered the “gold standard” due to its reliability, quality, comprehensiveness, transparency, and history. However, this infrastructure is now at risk of crumbling due to funding issues, declining response rates, and concerns about potential changes under the Trump administration.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been facing a decline in response rates for its surveys, which is affecting the accuracy of its data. According to William Beach, a former BLS commissioner, “Surveys are dying… and it’s not a cold, it’s a terminal disease.” The lack of funding is also a concern, with Erica Groshen, a former commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, stating that the agency has had to reduce its bandwidth for contingency, resilience, and modernization to maintain the flow of data.
The Census Bureau is also working to modernize its Current Population Survey, which is one of the two major surveys that compose the monthly jobs report. However, it has been facing declining response rates due to issues such as privacy concerns, cellphone-only households, and respondents’ availability.
The potential for changes to the statistical infrastructure is also a concern, with some proposals floating around to consolidate some statistical agencies. Groshen believes that there is common ground in some of these proposals, but it would require the consolidation to be done in a way that maintains the independence and funding of the agencies.
There are some backstops in place, such as the End of Term Web Archive project, which collects and preserves government websites during times of administration changes. However, the extent to which data may be scaled back or information removed could have chilling effects for underserved communities, particularly the LGBTQ+ community.
According to a report by the UCLA School of Law’s Williams Institute, the Trump administration’s executive orders that redefine “sex” as only male and female and eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion-focused efforts could ultimately affect the federal data involving marginalized Americans. This could have a lack of understanding of what’s going on with vulnerable populations, making it harder to address larger economic issues and employment issues.
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