[Donald Trump is having the time of his life. “In this term, everybody wants to be my friend,” the president-elect said at his Mar-a-Lago resort Monday, relishing the outpouring of deference from foreign leaders, CEOs and Republican powerbrokers as he readies his second term.
Since winning last month’s election, Trump has been far more visible than Joe Biden, and it would be easy to mistake him for the sitting president. He’s seized control over future foreign policy, towered over world leaders during a Paris trip and has tech titans flocking to pay homage.
He already has the power. All that’s missing is the actual constitutional authority conferred by the oath of office that he will take on January 20.
Trump never looked quite as at ease or cheerful when he was saddled with the cares of the presidency. And it’s a good bet that once he’s back behind the Oval Office desk, the burdens of the office will weigh a lot heavier than they do now.
He’s living in the best of all worlds, basking in the thrill of victory and a feeling of vindication over avenging what he sees as a fraudulent election loss in 2020. He didn’t win four years ago, but there’s genuine justification for the president-elect’s belief this year that he has a mandate to implement his hardline program since he won the popular vote and the Electoral College.
So far, it seems most Americans approve. A CNN/SSRS poll released last week found that 54% of respondents expect Trump to do a good job in his White House return, and 55% approve of how he’s handling his transition so far. That’s heady territory for the most polarizing politician of modern times.
Trump is experiencing a chance that only one president in history — Grover Cleveland — has known: to start his second term from scratch. As only the second president to win a non-consecutive term, he can learn from the lessons of his first presidency and start again with an entire new team and slate.
But for now, Trump can dream. “This will be the most exciting and successful period of reform and renewal in all of American history, maybe of global history. The Golden Age of America, I call it. It’s begun,” he said.
Yet Trump’s holiday from reality won’t last forever. Once he takes office, every decision that he makes will have a counter-reaction that risks draining his political capital and reigniting public skepticism about a president who has historically been a highly divisive figure.
If Trump fails to effectively honor his campaign trail promises — to bring down prices in supermarkets, to create historic prosperity and to get control of the border, he may soon find his approval ratings tanking to his normal levels.
And while failing to honor his promises may hurt Trump, he could be even more damaged if he actually goes through with pledges to shake up Washington, the country and the world, since the consequent waves of disruption could cause societal and economic blowback.
For instance, Trump’s planned mass deportation operation could easily prove unpopular if Americans witness scenes of human misery, if migrant families are torn apart, or if enforcement slows agricultural production that means shoppers can’t get their favorite fruits and vegetables. Trump’s tariff threats against Canada, Mexico and other nations might show him standing up to foreigners and demanding a better deal for workers. But if trade wars spike inflation and the price of basic goods shoots up, they could quickly backfire on the president-elect.
And all of this doesn’t take into account the factional warfare inside Trump’s team and his own temperamental eruptions that marred his first term and limited his effectiveness as commander in chief. It seems unlikely, as the president-elect speculated in his freewheeling news conference in Florida, that “my personality changed or something.”
Such turmoil is unlikely to erode the rock-solid loyalty of Trump’s political base. His outlandish antics play into the sense that he’s an anti-establishment insurgent whose desire to burn the government down is rooted in the disdain in which it is held by the MAGA movement. And polls showing an improvement in economic sentiment may reflect the trend of partisans viewing their prospects with a rosier hue when their favored candidate is in power.
But Trump also needs to bring the country with him at times of crisis. If moderate voters begin to perceive he’s bent on punishing political enemies or pursuing a personal agenda, the limited crossover appeal that helped him win the election could disappear.
Even during Trump’s sunny news conference on Monday, the crises and grave decisions that lay at the end of his victory lap began to materialize.
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