Consumer Technology Association CEO Gary Shapiro discusses how tariffs impact the prices of laptops on The Claman Countdown. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has released a forecast for the U.S. and global economies, including the potential impact of President-elect Trump’s planned tax cuts and tariffs.
According to Goldman Sachs’ report, the planned tax cuts will boost economic growth, but more aggressive tariffs could dampen that impact. The firm’s economists project that the U.S. economy will grow around 2.5% in 2025, assuming a baseline scenario that includes some fresh tax cuts, regulatory easing, reduced immigration, and higher tariffs on products from China and imported autos.
However, the report notes that a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imported goods, which Trump campaigned on, could have a negative impact on the economy, including a 0.2 percentage point decline in GDP growth in 2025. The report also projects that the tariffs could lead to 1 percentage point slower growth in 2026 if the revenue is not recycled into tax cuts.
The report also discusses the potential impact of Trump’s deportation policy, which the firm predicts will have more limited effects than initially expected due to resistance from various quarters. Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to implement its tariff policies relatively quickly, which will have the most impact on 2025, while fiscal policies such as tax cuts and spending reforms will have a longer lag and won’t be fully felt until 2025 and 2026.
Overall, the report suggests that the Trump administration’s policies will have a mix of positive and negative effects on the economy, with more significant impacts on inflation and interest rates than on overall economic growth.