Could a ceasefire deal be a disaster for Ukraine in disguise?
In Ukraine’s war-torn regions, a ceasefire agreement is raising more questions than answers. Battalion commander Volodymyr Sablyn believes that a ceasefire would only lead to further Russian advances, as Moscow would use the pause to re-equip and attack again.
Sablyn’s units have been dropping mortars on the frontlines, while Moscow’s forces are advancing on the vital military hub of Pokrovsk. The pace of the encirclement is startling, and once it falls, Russia will have few major settlements between its forces and the major cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.
Some in Ukraine are pinning their hopes on European or NATO troops providing security guarantees in the form of a peacekeeping mission. A European defense official has revealed “active discussions” on this topic, while US President Donald Trump’s new Ukraine envoy, Gen. Keith Kellogg, has proposed a peace plan that includes a ceasefire followed by European NATO members manning a demilitarized zone.
However, many are sceptical of the potential benefits of a ceasefire, citing Russia’s track record of violating agreements and using ceasefires to regroup and refocus its forces. The lack of infantry is a major weakness for Ukraine, and Sablyn fears that a ceasefire would only make it easier for Russia to exploit this vulnerability.
Soldiers and civilians alike are struggling to cope with the relentless brutality of the conflict. For some, the idea of peace seems a distant dream, with many questioning the likelihood of a ceasefire and the potential for it to hold. One soldier estimates the chances of a ceasefire at just 30%, while another puts it at 40%, citing the ongoing advances made by Russian forces.
As the conflict drags on, many are left wondering if peace is even possible, with the war-scarred towns of Lyman and Slovyansk serving as stark reminders of the human cost of the conflict. For some, like Larysa, 72, who has lost loved ones and seen her hometown ravaged by the war, the only hope lies in a Russian ceasefire. “We’ve been hit 19 times today,” she says, tearfully. “My husband is counting, and I’m taking sleeping pills. And then he wakes me up and says: ‘Well, did you count?'”.