[The fires that ravaged Los Angeles over the past week were likely exacerbated by planet-warming fossil fuel pollution, according to a new analysis by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles. The fires, which have burned over 60 square miles and destroyed more than 12,000 structures, would have been “somewhat smaller and less intense” without the climate pollution.
Climate change contributed around 25% of the fuel available for the fires, and the researchers attributed this to several factors, including excessive moisture from previous winters, an abnormally warm summer and fall, and a severely delayed rainy season in the winter of 2024-2025. The delay in rainfall caused the vegetation to dry out, providing a strong fuel source for the fires.
The analysis noted that the conditions in Southern California are characterized by extreme swings between dry and wet, but the lack of rainfall since May 2024 was exceptional. At only 0.29 inches of rain, the period ranked second-driest behind 1962-1963.
The researchers conclude that the extreme dry conditions and the strong Santa Ana wind event, which also contributed to the fires, would have been unusual even without the influence of climate change. The study suggests that the focus should be on aggressive suppression during high wildfire risk, strategies to prevent homes from catching fire easily, and avoiding high-risk zones when developing new urban areas.
According to the researchers, the study is a “starting point” for deeper analysis, and more research is needed to fully understand the impact of climate change on wildfires. Meanwhile, the prospect of a dry January and February in Los Angeles suggests that below-normal rainfall may persist, putting the region at risk for future wildfires.
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