The Russian Rouble Expected to Hover Around 100 Per Dollar into 2025
A poll of 10 economists conducted by Reuters suggests that the Russian Rouble is anticipated to remain traded at around 100 per U.S. dollar at the beginning of 2025 and subsequently weaken to 108 by year-end. Despite falling to a 2 1/2-year low in November following US-imposed sanctions, the currency has since strengthened after the Russian central bank’s intervention to stabilize it.
Market analysts believe the 100 per dollar mark may be the Rouble’s new equilibrium level due to stabilising foreign trade transactions and other positive factors supporting the currency. First-quarter economic reports typically show beneficial conditions for the Rouble due to reduced imports, foreign travel, and debt payments.
Citing Sovcombank, many analysts expect Russia’s central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate at 21% for the first half of 2025, given decreasing lending activity consistent with the regulatory forecast. Furthermore, Russia is expected to grow its economy 3.9% in 2024 before slowing down significantly to 1.6% in 2025, prompted by monetary policy tightening. Predictions indicate falling inflation rates closing in on 4% during the same year, which might allow for benchmark rate reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 to reach 18% by the regulator’s target year-end.