The “Fog of War” is the strategic message that Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to signal last week to President Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Pentagon and military and political leaders across the US and NATO. Putin’s choice of an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, is not accidental. The Oreshnik is an ICBM disguised as an IRBM, making it difficult to distinguish between the two.
On November 21, Russia struck a weapons production plant in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with the Oreshnik, which was in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on a Russian military facility in Bryansk with US-made long-range missiles called ATACMS, following an approval from President Biden. The media initially reported that the missile in question was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary, Sabrina Singh, later confirmed it was an “intermediate-range ballistic missile” (IRBM).
The Oreshnik has the capability of targeting most of Europe and the West Coast of the US, and it can be outfitted with a non-nuclear or nuclear warhead. The Oreshnik is also extremely difficult to intercept by existing missile defense systems, as it is designed to fly at hypersonic speed of Mach 11.
Putin’s use of the Oreshnik is a tactic to gain the so-called “strategic initiative” and to send a message to NATO and the US that Russia is willing to escalate the conflict. Putin has a history of using unconventional tactics, including missile strikes, to gain an advantage in conflicts.
The successful test of the Oreshnik has likely sent a shockwave to the international community, as it has shown that Russia has the capability to launch a surprise attack using a weapon that can be mistaken for an IRBM. The uncertainty and fear created by the use of the Oreshnik can be a powerful tool in Putin’s arsenal.
