Despite a slow start to respiratory disease season, low vaccination rates threaten the trend, and the rapid rise of some illnesses is already putting children at increased risk.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that this season could be similar or even better than the last, but the peak rate of respiratory virus hospitalizations will likely be well above what they typically were in years before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Covid-19 levels in the US are nearly the lowest they’ve been since the start of the pandemic and are decreasing, but flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are circulating at low levels, and emergency department visits for both viruses have started to rise.
The potential for new Covid-19 variants factors into the CDC’s forecasts for respiratory disease season, but vaccination is expected to play a key role in preventing hospitalizations for flu, Covid-19, and RSV.
Covid-19 vaccination rates are at about the same low rate they were at this time last year, with fewer than 1 in 5 adults and only about 1 in 12 children having received the updated Covid-19 shot for this season.
Flu vaccination rates are also low, with only about 37% of adults and 33% of children having gotten their flu shot this season.
Respiratory diseases pose unique risks to children, particularly infants, toddlers, and preschool-age children, who have smaller airways and rely on breathing through their nose.
RSV infections are typically mild for adults but infants and seniors face a higher risk of severe disease. The test positivity rate for RSV is rising significantly faster than it is for flu or Covid-19, and hospitalization rates are rising quickly among children.
Walking pneumonia, caused by the bacterium Mycoplasma pneumoniae, is spreading rapidly among young children and children’s hospitals are feeling the strain. Surges in respiratory diseases can strain hospital systems and exacerbate ongoing supply chain challenges, especially busy emergency departments.
Some children’s hospitals are already feeling the impact, with the emergency room at Cook Children’s Medical Center in Fort Worth, Texas, nearing capacity as increases in hospitalizations for RSV and pneumonia rise. Pediatric pneumonia cases requiring hospitalization have also spiked in central Virginia.
