How do you cram multiple big promises through a very tiny majority?
That’s the tricky question facing Republicans in Washington, who claim they’ve been given a mandate to enact sweeping permanent change after November’s election, but have one of the smallest congressional majorities in history to work with.
To accomplish this, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pushing for a two-bill approach: first, immigration and energy policy, and then tax cuts later in 2025. House Speaker Mike Johnson, on the other hand, is championing one massive bill that would extend tax cuts, change border policy, set aside the debt ceiling, and alter energy policy.
To get around Democratic obstruction in the Senate, Republicans will use the budgeting process known as “reconciliation,” which allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority. The process involves agreeing on a non-binding budget blueprint, and then drafting legislation to meet the goals set out in the blueprint.
The use of reconciliation is not new, as seen in the pattern of recent presidencies. Barack Obama and Joe Biden have both used it to pass key legislation, including the Affordable Care Act and the American Rescue Plan, respectively. Even Donald Trump has utilized it, using it to pass his tax cuts in 2017.
However, Republicans will face multiple challenges in implementing their agenda. First, they need to pass a budget blueprint, which is a heavy lift, requiring a marathon series of votes in the Senate. Additionally, the party is divided on key issues like immigration, energy production, and taxes.
Moreover, Trump’s promises, such as ending taxes on tips and social security, would greatly reduce government revenue, blowing a hole of nearly $8 trillion in the federal budget over the next decade. This will likely be met with resistance from some within the party, including lawmakers who are on the fence or even opposed to the plan.
Finally, the House majority is at an all-time low, with only 217 Republicans and 215 Democrats. The exit of some members could force Speaker Johnson to wait for new replacements before passing any controversial legislation.
In short, it’s going to be a challenging and likely grueling experience for Republicans as they attempt to cram multiple big promises through a very tiny majority.