Wild Card Weekend is here, and I’m excited to dive into what should be an incredible weekend of NFL games. There are so many smart wagers that we could make during this first weekend of the playoffs. In addition to backing the Los Angeles Rams, my picks this week feature a couple of teasers.
Monday, January 13:
Vikings @ Rams (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
This is tricky to handicap because this game was moved to Arizona due to the fires in California. Early in the week, money came in on the Rams. After the change in venue, the Vikings went back up to -2.5. Still, I think the Rams are the side here, with the points and on the moneyline. Sam Darnold, the Vikings’ quarterback, is having the best season of his career by a significant margin, but this is his first playoff game. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start when facing a QB with playoff experience are 19-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 22 years and 19-38 straight up (SU).
The Rams defense isn’t as blitz-happy (Minnesota ranks first in blitz percentage this season; Rams rank 20th). So Darnold won’t be that bad, unless the Vikings are playing catch-up all night. The Rams offense, which is at full strength with Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all healthy, will be crucial in this game.
I like the Rams to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright. if you’re patient enough, you can probably get the Rams at a better price after the Vikings get the kickoff and score on their scripted drive.
PICK: Rams (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
PICK: Rams Moneyline
I have two other picks for the Bills, Eagles, and Ravens, which feature an almost even-money payout ($100 bet wins $102). I think the Bills can fade the Broncos, and the Ravens might be able to contain the Steelers’ offense, which has suffered recently. The Eagles are also looking strong at home.
PICK: Bills, Eagles, Ravens Moneyline Parlay
I think the Broncos are in a difficult spot, and the Bills will be the better team by a wide margin. The Steelers have four straight losses, and it’s uncertain how they’ll be able to contain the Ravens’ offense. The Packers and Eagles are facing each other, but I think the Packers will struggle without Christian Watson, who’s out for the season.
PICK: Two-team, 7-point teaser
Texans +8.5, Bills -3
The Texans might be the better team at home, and they’re getting nine points. The Chargers are going on the road for the third straight week, having had one of the earliest byes back in October. This feels like a low-scoring game that could go either way, and getting more than one score with the Texans at home is a side I like.