OPEC Lowers Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for 2024 and 2025
OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecasts, citing slower economic growth in key markets such as China and India. According to the organization, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, a downward revision of 210,000 bpd from its previous forecast. For 2025, demand is projected to grow by 1.4 million bpd, a 90,000 bpd downward revision.
On the supply front, countries outside OPEC’s Declaration of Cooperation are expected to ramp up production, particularly in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Norway, potentially exerting pressure on prices. OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecasts at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025, but revised its outlook for the United States to 2.8% growth in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, supported by strong expansion in the second half of 2024.
China’s growth estimates remain steady at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025, while India’s growth outlook is unchanged at 6.8% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. The revisions in demand forecasts come as global economic growth is seen to be uneven, with debates over energy transition and rising supply from non-OPEC producers potentially shifting market dynamics in the coming years.