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Measuring the Limits of American Exceptionalism

by Curt Heenan
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute Maintains Positive Stance on US Economic Growth and Market Performance

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Wells Fargo Investment Institute has reiterated its positive outlook on the resilience of US economic growth and market performance, a view that has guided its portfolio recommendations over the past few years. The institute attributes this success to several factors, including aggressive pandemic-era tax cuts and government spending, which have positioned the US for a robust post-COVID recovery.

According to the institute, US exceptionalism is supported by both micro and macroeconomic strengths. At the company level, US firms are perceived as more innovative, technology-oriented, and efficient compared to their international counterparts. The institute also cites structural supports such as innovation, immigration, and proactive economic policies, as well as the role of the US dollar as the primary currency in global trade and finance.

The institute believes that US exceptionalism will persist, outshining temporary growth headwinds and deeper structural problems in Europe and China. It suggests that economic risks associated with trade and immigration policies may be offset by potential growth-enhancing tax cuts and deregulation.

In terms of investment implications, the institute recommends a longer-term overweight position in Information Technology, Communication Services, and other tech-exposed sectors, driven by ongoing digitalization and innovative technologies. It also advises increasing international exposure through US multinationals in Energy, Materials, and Industrials, aligning with its view of sustained US exceptionalism.

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