Title: Trump’s Victory Hinges on Doubtful Supporters, Economy Concerns
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory was built on the support of a substantial minority of voters who retained significant doubts about his character, policy agenda, or both. Despite their reservations, these voters preferred Trump over his opponent, Joe Biden, largely because of their discontent with the economy and their belief that Trump would improve their financial situation.
According to exit polls and the AP VoteCast survey, a crucial slice of voters who were concerned about Trump’s extremity, honesty, and potential authoritarianism still chose to support him. Some 1 in 8 voters who described Trump as “too extreme” and 1 in 6 voters who expressed concern that he would steer the country in an authoritarian direction nonetheless voted for him.
Key issues, such as immigration and abortion, also contributed to Trump’s victory. Although a majority of voters supported legal abortion, about 3 in 10 who did so still voted for Trump. Similarly, many voters who opposed Trump’s plan for mass deportation still supported him.
Trump’s success among these divided voters can be attributed to their belief that he would improve conditions on the issues they care most about, particularly inflation and the cost of living. According to Molly Murphy, a lead pollster for Harris, voters who thought Trump would improve their financial situation minimized any other personal or policy concerns about him.
However, holding onto these conflicted supporters may prove challenging for Trump once he enters office and begins implementing his agenda. If Trump becomes entangled in political firefights over issues such as pardoning January 6 rioters or ending birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants, it may violate voters’ expectations and erode their support.
If Trump is unsuccessful in improving the economy or addressing the concerns of these voters, they may quickly turn their focus back to their other hesitations about him, which could have significant implications for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.
