[Speaker Mike Johnson will face a significant challenge in the new Congress due to the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years. Despite winning 220 House seats in the November elections, the Republican majority is vulnerable to shrinkage, and President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda may be imperiled as a result.
The current partisan breakdown is 219-215 in favor of Republicans, with two GOP lawmakers expected to join the Trump administration, further reducing the majority. This leaves House Republicans with little room for error, as a single defection could block legislation from passing along party lines until the vacancies are filled.
With Republicans in control of the House, Senate, and White House, intense pressure will be placed on GOP leaders to swiftly enact Trump’s agenda. However, the tight margin gives any rank-and-file lawmaker the ability to exert significant influence by making demands on the speaker.
Speaker Johnson has already faced challenges, particularly from his right flank, and this dynamic is set to intensify. Passing a bill in the House requires a majority of all members present and voting, which can be difficult to achieve, especially with vacancies and absences. A tie vote in the House can be considered a failure.
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