Don’t Let Israel’s Approval of the Gaza Ceasefire Fool You: Deep Schisms in Israeli Politics Threaten the Deal’s Longevity
Despite Israel’s government approving a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, deep schisms in Israeli politics threaten the deal’s longevity. The agreement, which includes a 42-day ceasefire, the release of 33 hostages, and a slow withdrawal of Israeli military from urban centers in Gaza, may not come to pass due to the vagaries of Israeli politics.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the proposal, which is remarkably similar to one he previously railed against. Netanyahu’s extremist allies, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, are confused by his sudden about-face. Ben Gvir has said he will withdraw from the government coalition if the ceasefire and hostage deal goes through.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, another extreme right-wing nationalist, wants to ensure that the peace in Gaza is not permanent and that Israel returns to war after the 42-day ceasefire. If Smotrich and Ben Gvir withdraw from the coalition, Netanyahu’s government could be toppled. However, President Biden’s opposition party leader, Yair Lapid, has offered a political lifeline to Netanyahu, providing a temporary solution.
The deal is not a permanent end to the war, and many hostages are likely dead. The negotiations for the release of the remaining 65 hostages will only begin after 16 days. Additionally, Netanyahu’s office has been accused of accusing Hamas of reneging on promises, potentially a tactic to placate the domestic, far-right audience.
Another factor at play is incoming American President Donald Trump, who has taken credit for the “EPIC” deal and may bring pressure on Netanyahu to stay with the agreement. Netanyahu had previously been able to ignore President Joe Biden’s overtures, but now has no such luxury.