[It’s been many years since ISIS, also known as Islamic State, controlled much of Syria and northern Iraq, spawning affiliates in Africa and Asia and organizing deadly terror attacks in European cities. Despite being far from moribund, ISIS remains an active terror group in over a dozen countries and has inspired and supported individuals and cells in Europe and Russia in recent years.
The most high-profile attack attributed to ISIS in 2024 was the devastating assault on a Moscow shopping mall in March, which left at least 150 dead and over 500 injured. This incident thrust ISIS back into the spotlight, as have recent events in Syria. US officials are concerned that instability following the collapse of the Assad regime may allow ISIS to expand from its remote desert strongholds and regain a foothold in Iraq, nearly six years after its “caliphate” fell.
There is also the perennial concern among Western security services that individuals inspired by ISIS will launch low-tech attacks – such as stabbings, shootings, and driving vehicles into crowds. Such plans are notoriously difficult to detect. Vehicle attacks in the name of ISIS in the last few years – including in Nice, Barcelona, Berlin, and New York – have killed over 100 people.
In the wake of a recent attack in New Orleans, FBI agents are searching for anyone who may have worked with the suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old Texas man and Army veteran, to plan or execute the assault. US President Joe Biden said that the suspect had posted videos on social media indicating that he was inspired by ISIS. The suspect was killed in a firefight with police officers.
ISIS and al Qaeda have repeatedly called on sympathizers to carry out “do-it-yourself” attacks. The Boston marathon bombers in 2013 used a “recipe” from an online al Qaeda publication to build their devices. Events in the Middle East have pushed already radicalized individuals to violence, according to Rita Katz, executive director of SITE Intelligence.
ISIS has also attempted to exploit the situation in Gaza, with ISIS spokesman Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari calling on Muslims to “hunt your prey – the Jews, Christians, and their allies – in the streets and alleyways of America, Europe, and the world.” In a speech cited by SITE Intelligence, he urged followers to “direct your actions at the easy targets before the difficult, the civilian targets before the military, and the religious targets such as synagogues and churches before anything else.”
The Islamic State’s most potent branch, IS Khorasan (ISIS-K), has global ambitions and a sophisticated online presence in multiple languages, including English. The group has grown in strength since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and has tapped into radicalized populations in central Asia.
ISIS-K has attempted to target Western Europe and the United States, as well as Russia. In July 2023, seven men were arrested in Germany suspected of planning high-profile attacks and being in contact with ISIS-K planners. All the suspects were from central Asia.
The US is concerned that should a security vacuum emerge in Syria, ISIS will regroup and expand there. Analysts with the non-profit Soufan Center calculated that ISIS attacks in Syria tripled in 2024 compared to the previous year, hovering around 700. They have also improved in sophistication, increased in lethality, and become more dispersed geographically. One risk is that as beleaguered Kurdish forces fend off Turkish-backed militia in northern Syria, they will no longer secure the compounds where thousands of ISIS operatives are held.
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