Down to the Final Four: College Football Playoff Semifinals
We’re down to the final four teams in the first College Football Playoff that featured 12 teams. While the previous games haven’t been thrilling, I’m confident we’ll get our money’s worth out of the last two rounds. Here are my best bets for the semifinal round:
Thursday, January 9
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
The edge this week lies in whoever can score 20 points first, as both quarterbacks, Riley Leonard and Drew Allar, are limited through the air. The offensive strategy will be simple: just don’t make mistakes. I’m looking at the first-half Under and full-game Under due to cautious offenses and defensive containment of running attacks. The status of two standouts, PSU edge rusher Abdul Carter and Notre Dame’s leading rusher Jeremiyah Love, is unclear, so I lean Notre Dame on the side, but prefer the moneyline.
Pick: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined
Pick: Notre Dame (-129) Moneyline
Friday, January 10
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
No team has looked better than Ohio State through two playoff games, and their recent changes to the offense have been effective in attacking through the air, softening up the defensive front, and leading to big plays in the ground game. The number is too high, so I would prefer to back OSU, but caution their defense may have some issues with Texas All-American corner Jahdae Barron.
Pick: Tease OSU -6 to pick, Penn State +2 to +8
Pick: Ohio State (-6) to win by more than 6 points