File photo of Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaking at a convention in Athlone, central Ireland on March 24, 2024, after becoming de facto prime minister-in-waiting.
Ireland’s two large center-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, are on course to be returned to power after the election on Friday, but will likely need at least one junior partner to reach a majority, raising questions about the stability of the next government. The parties may face prolonged negotiations or an unstable coalition ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose pledge to slash corporate tax and impose tariffs poses a major threat to the Irish economy.
The outgoing government parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, are currently on 21% and 19.5%, respectively, behind the left-wing Sinn Fein on 21.1% in an exit poll. With the two center-right parties ruling out a deal with Sinn Fein, the main question is how close they can secure to the 88 seats needed for a majority and whether they will need one or two more coalition partners to get over the line.
A coalition with four parties could be far more fragile, and the current junior coalition party, the Greens, is expected to see their seat numbers fall from 12 to three. The formal counting of votes began at 0900 GMT and is expected to last until Sunday at the earliest in many constituencies under Ireland’s proportional representation system, which is likely to give the larger parties a higher proportion of seats than their percentage of votes.