The Stunning Collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime in Syria: Consequences for Russia, Iran, and the Broader Landscape
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves throughout the region and beyond, marking a dramatic turning point in the nearly 14-year-long civil war. The implications for Russia, Iran, and the broader regional and global landscape are profound.
Russia’s involvement in Syria was never just about Assad, experts say. Securing a foothold in the Middle East was a cornerstone of Moscow’s strategy, with the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval facility serving as vital assets for projecting power. However, with Assad now gone, Russia’s assets in Syria are at risk.
“The stunning collapse of Putin’s long-term ally, Assad, represents a strategic defeat for Russia, which will now face criticism from within Russia itself about the failures of its foreign policy,” said Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook.”
For Russia, the loss of Syria is a significant blow, as it strains the country’s already-overtretched military resources, particularly as it continues to fight in Ukraine.
Iran, on the other hand, has suffered a devastating blow to its long-term regional strategy. Syria was a crucial link in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and enabling the smuggling of weapons across the region. The weakening of Hezbollah during its war with Israel further exacerbated Assad’s vulnerability, leaving the regime without critical support on the ground.
An anonymous Iranian journalist shed light on the internal reaction in Iran, stating that “the majority of Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard funneled resources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, draining the Iranian people’s wealth. Now, with Assad gone, there is hope that Iran’s oppressive influence in the region will weaken.”
As the situation in Syria continues to unfold, the United States, Israel, and other global powers must navigate the complexities of this new landscape. The surprise attack on Assad’s forces by the Salafi-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has underscored the region’s instability, and the potential consequences for the Middle East and beyond are far-reaching.
Experts caution against celebrating the downfall of one dictator, warning that it can often lead to even worse outcomes, as seen in Iraq and Libya. Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s National Security Council, believes there is a potential upside for the United States and Israel, as the collapse of Assad’s regime presents an opportunity for Washington to strengthen its position in the Middle East and construct a coalition of moderate Arab states to counter both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces.
As the dust settles on this dramatic turn of events, the world waits with bated breath to see how this new landscape will unfold.
