Twenty-eight NFL squads have been eliminated from the quest to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and now, the league’s version of the Final Four is here. Home teams went 5-1 in the wild-card round and 3-1 last week in divisional matchups. The Cinderella Commanders are the only team this postseason to emerge victorious on the road.
In last week’s games, it was a great reminder of the importance of shopping for the best possible line when making wagers. The Chiefs were anywhere from 7.5- to 9.5-point favorites over the Texans, and thanks to a late safety, they won by exactly nine points. The Eagles were 5.5-point favorites early last week over the Rams, but got all the way up to 7 on Sunday, with the final margin being six points, right in the middle of the opening and closing numbers.
This week, let’s examine the games that will decide who’s headed to the Super Bowl. The first is the Commanders @ Eagles (-6, 47) matchup. If you told a Cowboys fan back in August that there would be an all-NFC East, NFC title game, they would have been celebrating. Instead, it’s the upstart Commanders heading to Philly to take on the Eagles, as Washington looks to clinch one of the most improbable conference championships in NFL history.
These teams met twice in the regular season, and each team won at home. However, in the Commanders’ win, it’s worth noting that Jalen Hurts left with a concussion after throwing just four passes – a game in which the Eagles at one point led 21-7. So, I’m going with the Eagles here. The Commanders’ rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been great, but winning in Philly against a very good defense and relentless rushing attack is asking too much. I think wagering on wide receiver Dyami Brown to go over 43.5 receiving yards is a good bet. On the Eagles side, tight end Dallas Goedert going Over 3.5 catches is my favorite player prop, as Goedert could be the one to benefit from all the attention drawn by running back Saquon Barkley.
The other matchup is the Bills @ Chiefs (-2, 47.5) game. For the fourth time in five years, the Chiefs and Bills will meet in January. The Bills are hoping the fourth time is the charm, as they have been eliminated by Patrick Mahomes & Co. in all but one season (2022) since 2020. On one hand, it feels like the Chiefs are as beatable as they’ve ever been since this incredible run started in 2018. On the other hand, do you really want to bet against Mahomes at home or anywhere for that matter – especially with such a low spread? I’m opting for the latter. I can stomach a loss backing Mahomes more than I can stomach a loss betting against him. The bet I like most is Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combined. The three previous playoff matchups between these teams yielded combined points scored of 62, 78, and 51. Their regular-season meeting earlier this year? That game had 51 total points scored.