Are We Already in World War III?
Many experts are sounding the alarm, warning that we are on the precipice of a new global conflict. But is it too late to prevent it from escalating? Former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have both hinted that a new world war is already underway, citing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the increased tensions between world powers. But are we really on the brink of a global catastrophe, or are these warnings merely a cause for concern?
Newsweek posed the question to a range of experts, and the responses were sobering. While some agreed that the world is on a precarious precipice, others argued that it’s still possible to avert a global conflict.
Olevs Nikers, President of the Baltic Security Foundation, believes that we are in the “final stages of a pre-World War III situation” and that the ice is “very thin, it can break out between the great powers due to a number of reasons.” However, he also believes that the global war can still be prevented or some of the sources of global conflict can be excluded in Europe, fully denying Russia’s further aggression.
David Stevenson, Emeritus Professor of International History, disagrees, saying that “we are not in a third world war yet, though the risk of one is substantial.” He notes that the characteristics of a new Cold War are already present, but that the risk of all-out conflict is low.
Edward Newman, Professor of International Security, agrees that we are not in a state of World War III, but warns of the risks of an escalation of hybrid war tactics, where conventional and irregular techniques are used to achieve strategic goals. Ian Ona Johnson, P.J. Moran Family Associate Professor of Military History, argues that while the situation in Ukraine is grave, it is unlikely to escalate to a global conflict, and that a direct war between great powers is still unlikely.
Walter Dorn, Professor of Defence Studies, believes that the US is safe from conquest, provided it avoids falling prey to illusions about national security. He notes that the potential danger of a Third World War stems from the Pogo Principle, where “we have met the enemy and they are us.”
Kristian Gleditsch, Regius Professor of Political Science, concludes that WWIII has not begun, as there is no connection between different armed conflicts around the world that would warrant seeing them as part of a larger overarching conflict. He notes that the number of recorded conflicts and recorded battledeaths has increased in recent years, but the majority of the increase is due to Islamist movements.
The question of whether we are already in World War III remains a contentious one, with even the experts disagreeing. While some believe that the warning signs are there, others argue that a global conflict is still averted. One thing is certain, however: the world is in a precarious state, and only time will tell whether we can avoid the specter of global war.