President of Rassemblement National parliamentary group Marine Le Pen (L) speaks to French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) RN party’s President and lead MEP Jordan Bardella during the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) RN party’s parliamentary seminar at the French National Assembly in Paris on September 14, 2024.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has opted to push through a contested budget bill without a vote in parliament, a dramatic move that heightens the risk of the government being toppled by far-right and leftist rivals. Barnier cited article 49.3 of the French constitution, which allows him to bypass a vote, but also allows opponents to trigger a confidence vote.
The far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has said it will lodge a no-confidence vote against Barnier in an attempt to oust him. The leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance has also announced it will table a no-confidence motion.
The RN has given the government a deadline of Monday to agree to fresh concessions over the 2025 budget, which involves €60 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts. The party is calling for increases in pensions in line with inflation in January and boosted support for smaller businesses.
If Barnier’s government is toppled, it is uncertain what could happen next. New parliamentary elections cannot be held until next June, 12 months after the last snap vote. Money markets are already nervous about France’s unravelling political establishment and the potential impact on the euro zone’s second-largest economy.
France’s public debt topped 110% of GDP in 2023, and the country’s budget deficit is expected to stand at 6.1% in 2024. Countries within the EU are obliged to keep their budget deficits within 3% of gross domestic product and their public debt within 60% of GDP.
Economists warn that France needs to correct its unsustainable fiscal policy and that the Barnier government is at the mercy of the National Rally. Le Pen may need to play a carefully calculated political game in the coming days to avoid being seen as an agent of chaos rather than a responsible leader.
However, even if the 2025 budget is passed, it would be a short-lived reprieve from France’s wider fiscal challenges. The country’s huge budget deficit and government debt require years of substantive fiscal tightening to achieve a primary surplus.
