Home Prices in Florida Expected to Fall in 2025
Home prices in Florida are expected to fall across the state in 2025, according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli. The typical value of a home in Florida has increased by 60% over the past five years, but the market has slowed down significantly since the pandemic. Mortgage rates have risen, and the influx of people moving to the state has decreased, leading to a surplus of inventory and a decrease in demand.
The market slowdown has been particularly pronounced in vacation home sales, which have hit an eight-year low. Investor demand has also dropped, and in-migration has plummeted by 79% compared to pandemic levels. Meanwhile, inventory and active listings have been on the rise since 2021, with over 150,000 listings now available, the highest level since 2017.
Several metros in Florida have already experienced year-on-year price drops, including Jacksonville, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. In Jacksonville, the median listing price was down 5.7% in December 2024 compared to a year earlier, while in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, it was down 9.9%.
Experts say that the market is not expected to crash, but rather normalize after years of rapid growth. While some areas are experiencing price declines, home prices are still on the rise at the state level. According to Redfin, the median sale price of a home in Florida was $410,900 in December 2024, up 1.8% from a year earlier.
The expected price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, who have been priced out of the market in recent years. As the market normalizes, it is expected to become more affordable for buyers, making it a more sustainable market in the long term.