Home Prices in Florida Expected to Fall in 2025
Home prices in Florida are expected to fall across the state in 2025, according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App. The forecast is welcome news for aspiring homebuyers who had been priced out of the market in recent years.
Gerli attributes the decline in prices to a combination of factors, including a natural slowdown in in-migration after the pandemic, the rise in mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to reduce inflation, and a recent flood of new inventory. The typical value of a home in Florida has gone up by roughly 60 percent over the past five years, from $243,000 in November 2019 to $389,000 in November 2024. However, mortgage rates have increased from 3.7 percent to 6.8 percent over the same period.
The lack of affordability has contributed to a big market slowdown in Florida, where demand for vacation homes hit an eight-year low last year. Investor demand has also dropped from the 2022 peaks, and in-migration has plunged by 79 percent compared to pandemic levels.
As a result, Reventure App is forecasting price declines all throughout Florida’s housing market in 2025. This is the highest level of inventory since 2017, with over 150,000 active listings. The price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, who will finally see a return of affordability to a housing market that sorely needs it.
Several metros in Florida have already experienced year-on-year price drops, including Jacksonville, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. While some areas are experiencing price declines, home prices are still on the rise at the state level, with the median sale price of a home in Florida up 1.8 percent from a year earlier in December 2024.
