Next year is expected to be the last year that Europe’s population is set to grow, with the number of people in the European Union projected to decline in 2026 and reach just 419.5 million by the turn of the century.
According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Europe’s population is forecast to continue growing, albeit slowly, until 2026, when it will peak at 453.3 million. However, the number of people in the EU is expected to fall to 419.5 million by 2100.
There are several reasons contributing to Europe’s population decline, including a low fertility rate. In developed countries, an average of 2.1 live births per woman is considered the threshold needed to replace the population, but European women have an average of 1.52 children. This means that there are more deaths than births in Europe, leading to a decline in the population.
Another factor contributing to Europe’s population decline is an aging population. As people live longer, the number of working-age individuals is declining, which means fewer people are contributing to the economy through the private sector and through taxes.
Immigration has been a mitigator of Europe’s declining population, but it is not enough to offset the decline. Experts say that sustained levels of immigration able to compensate for the decline in population would be too substantial.
Dr. Theodore D Cosco, a research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Institute of Population Aging, suggests that policies that increase workforce engagement, particularly among women and older adults, could help mitigate the impact of Europe’s aging population. He also argues that attracting well-educated, well-integrated migrants may be able to offset some of the challenges posed by Europe’s demographic shift.
Anne Goujon, Ph.D., who heads the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis’ Population and Just Societies Program, suggests that increasing labor force participation, particularly among women, and increasing levels of education could also help mitigate the impact of Europe’s aging population.
Goujon also notes that while migration can help momentarily, it is unlikely to reverse Europe’s demographic slide. She suggests that most of human history has been characterized by periods of population growth and periods of decline, and that the growth of recent centuries has been exceptional and unsustainable.
In conclusion, Europe’s population is expected to decline in the coming years, with experts attributing the decline to a low fertility rate and an aging population. While immigration has been a mitigator of Europe’s declining population, it is not enough to offset the decline. Experts suggest that policies aimed at increasing workforce engagement, increasing levels of education, and attracting well-educated, well-integrated migrants may be able to mitigate the impact of Europe’s aging population. However, reversing Europe’s demographic slide is unlikely, and governments will need to adjust to a shrinking population.
