You Can Blame Bird Flu for High Egg Prices at the Grocery Store
The price of a dozen large, Grade A eggs has surged by nearly 37% in the past year, with the average cost reaching $4.15 in the United States last month. This increase is much larger than the 2.5% rise in overall food prices. The egg industry has been severely impacted by a surge of bird flu cases, with over 13 million egg-laying hens dying in December and another 3.3 million in early January.
The loss of so many hens has led to a significant reduction in the supply of eggs, which has driven up prices. “One of the hard parts is there’s this regional concentration of production,” said Jada Thompson, a poultry economist at the University of Arkansas. “And so when a disease is going through and hitting farms in that area, it’s gonna affect multiple farms, and that’s gonna affect the supply of eggs – and that supply then will affect our prices.”
Highly pathogenic avian influenza has infected over 130 million birds in the United States since it first emerged in 2022. The virus has also appeared in dairy cattle for the first time, and has infected over 900 cows since last spring. The disease has an extremely high fatality rate in birds, with many dying within a day or two.
Outbreaks of the virus are particularly affecting the Midwest, where many large egg producers are located. Producers are hatching more chicks to make up for the losses, but it’s difficult to know for sure how bad the disease will be and how much it will cost to keep too many birds. “Everybody’s trying to find the best solution to mitigate disease impacts and maintain profitability,” said Thompson. “Because if egg prices are high, we don’t buy as many eggs… they still need to sell their egg, so this is an issue for both producers and consumers.”
Thompson expects egg prices to fall again as there are fewer bird flu cases and the egg supply recovers. However, more outbreaks of the virus could push prices back up. “We’ll have to keep an eye on how many outbreaks there are and where those are happening,” she said.