Washington — Republicans will have a narrow majority in the House next year with Democrats flipping one final seat in California, leaving GOP leaders with even less margin for error as they try to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Democrat Adam Gray has defeated GOP Rep. John Duarte in a rematch in California’s 13th District in the Central Valley following weeks of ballot counting, NBC News projects, meaning Republicans will have 220 House seats to Democrats’ 215 in the 2024 elections. The GOP can lose just two votes on legislation in the House in the next Congress if Democrats all vote in opposition, giving them little wiggle room for absences, internal fighting, and vacancies.
The slim GOP majority underscores the close fight for the House this year, with operatives in both parties acknowledging that the recent redistricting process narrowed the battlefield by creating fewer competitive races. Just over 40 seats — around 10% of the chamber — were decided by less than 5 percentage points.
Despite the slim majority, Republicans will face hurdles in getting their reconciliation package to the finish line, with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and his colleagues facing a math problem due to the fragile makeup of the House.
President-elect Trump and Republicans are eyeing the reconciliation package as a vehicle to renew tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017, as well as a tax exemption for income earned from tips and lifting the cap on the state and local tax deduction.
The reconciliation package will be difficult for Johnson to pass, especially with Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., resigning from Congress to join the Trump administration. If their resignations happen simultaneously, Johnson will be operating with just a one-seat majority.