Top Wall Street CEOs and dealmakers are expecting a surge in larger mergers and acquisitions under the incoming Trump administration, following a decline in megadeals this year due to a harsher regulatory environment.
The appointment of Andrew Ferguson as the chair of the Federal Trade Commission, replacing Lina Khan, is seen as a sign that the agency will ease up on the policing of large tie-ups. As a result, dealmakers are anticipating a burst of deals next year, with some predicting that the era of large deals is not dead.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said dealmaking in equities and M&A could exceed 10-year averages next year, while Morgan Stanley’s Tom Miles predicted that some of the transactions that have been delayed will come back in 2025.
The private equity industry is also expected to benefit from the new administration, with further cuts in U.S. interest rates expected to make financing leveraged buyouts more affordable. Private equity firms are sitting on roughly $4 trillion of capital that is yet to be deployed, and dealmakers anticipate a surge in buyout volumes next year.
Global M&A volumes stood at $3.2 trillion during the first 11 months of 2024, up from $2.76 trillion during the same period last year, according to data provider Dealogic. Dealmaking activity is also expected to get a near-term boost from inbound acquisition interest from foreign buyers for high-growth U.S. companies.
Some dealmakers have flagged the impact of policy uncertainty, protectionism, and inflationary pressures under Trump as potential headwinds for the business of corporate dealmaking. However, the overall outlook for M&A activity has brightened significantly, with many expecting a strong year ahead.