The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has recently shifted its stance on the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic, now favoring the lab leak theory. The agency previously stated that it did not have enough information to conclude whether the pandemic emerged naturally from a wet market in Wuhan, China, or from an accidental leak at a research lab there. However, following a new assessment, the agency’s analysts say they now have low confidence that the virus likely originated from an accidental leak at one of the high-security laboratories in Wuhan.
The agency’s shift is based on a re-evaluation of the available body of reporting, although the natural origin theory remains plausible. The new assessment is not based on any new intelligence, but rather a closer look at the conditions in the high-security labs in Wuhan province before the pandemic outbreak. The agency made its new assessment with low confidence, which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and contradictory.
The change in the CIA’s stance was announced shortly after the agency’s new director, John Ratcliffe, said that he wanted to get the agency “off the sidelines” of the debate over the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. Ratcliffe has long favored the lab leak hypothesis and believes it is a critical piece of intelligence that needs to be understood. He has said that the consequences of the origin of the pandemic are significant and will impact US-China relations.
The agency’s previous director, William J. Burns, ordered a new classified review of the pandemic’s origin in the final weeks of the Biden administration, and analysts were told to take a position on the origins of Covid, though he was agnostic on which theory they should embrace. Ratcliffe has credited the agency with making a major shift, despite not having any new intelligence.
