LAUNCESTON, Australia (Reuters) – China’s imports of major commodities in 2024 presented a mixed bag, with record volumes of iron ore, coal and copper, but weakness in crude oil.
The raw data for the world’s biggest buyer of natural resources suggests that parts of the economy are performing solidly, but others are struggling or undergoing structural shifts. One of the main challenges in analyzing China’s commodity imports is separating temporary factors from changes that are part of a long-term trend.
Crude oil imports for 2024 were 553.42 million metric tons, equivalent to 11.04 million barrels per day, down 2.1% or 210,000 barrels per day from 2023. It’s tempting to say that the world’s biggest importer of crude has reached its peak, and that 2025 and subsequent years will see lower arrivals. However, the main reasoning for this is the rapid uptake of more than 50% of the market by New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), a term that groups both full electric vehicles and hybrids.
China’s fleet of internal combustion engine cars is still increasing, so in theory, so should demand for gasoline. The picture for diesel is similar, with trucks powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) eating away at the market share of the heavy transport fuel.
In contrast, coal imports rose nearly 10% in 2024 to 131.69 million tons, while iron ore imports rose 4.9% to 1.236 billion tons. However, copper imports remained steady, with a 3.3% increase to 5.68 million tons.
The main boost to iron ore and coal imports is likely to be lower costs, as the price of iron ore contracts traded on the Singapore Exchange fell 28% over the year. A 28% drop was likely enough to prompt Chinese steel mills and traders to increase purchases, especially in the second half of the year when prices were lower than in the first half.
Copper imports point to slow growth momentum in the world’s second-largest economy, as strong sectors such as NEVs and energy transition products such as solar panels are not enough to offset weaker areas such as residential construction.