Election Season May Be Over, but Political Betting Has Only Just Begun
As the 2024 election cycle comes to a close, many platforms are allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
According to Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, people are already betting on the 2026 and 2028 elections, with over $2 billion wagered on the outcome of the 2024 election. Some platforms, such as Polymarket, are even allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed.
Bettors can also wager on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024. One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Lott believes that taking a look at the current betting odds can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself. “If you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”