The Surprising Offense by Sunni Rebels in Syria Reveals a Deep Crisis in Iran’s Strategy
According to Institute for National Security Studies researcher Benny Sabati, Iran’s strategy in combating Israel has led to a deep crisis in its current situation. The Islamic Republic has paid a high price for operating its proxies against Israel, with many of its soldiers and field commanders being eliminated or captured.
As a result, Iran is entering the campaign in Syria in a weakened state, with no means to assist the Assad regime. Moreover, the Iranian military has become a target itself, with Sunni rebels targeting and killing a general and several IRGC members, and capturing the Iranian consulate.
Sabati notes that Iran’s problem is compounded by its inability to manage simultaneous fronts. “The Iranians have an issue. They neither like nor believe in fighting on two fronts. When they’re focused on the Israeli front, that’s all they deal with,” he said. “They likely had to neglect this front of the extremist Sunnis. They’ve abandoned it for the past two or three years in favor of focusing on Israel.”
The consequences of this neglect are now becoming evident, with the situation in Syria escalating and internal criticism rising in Iran. The public is angry about aid provided to regional countries and terrorist organizations, and the regional implications largely depend on Russia’s response.
If Russia intervenes to suppress the rebellion, it would be a different story. However, if they don’t, Iran and the Syrian regime would witness a significant weakening. In search of a solution, Iran has turned to Russia, with its foreign minister speaking with Russia’s foreign minister about potential aid. However, even this seems futile, as Iran has little power to offer.